State changes is because the HSRP hellos come and go. Active HSRP sends hello every 3 secs, if the standby router does not rx any hellos in 3 consecutive times it thinks the active is gone and resume the active role.
if you look at the output above you will find that R1 doe snot know who the standby, if most likely HSRP hellos are lost between the two routers. R3 is active probably because it does not find any other router in that segment, 192.168.40.x subnet, that's connectivity issue. Check if R3 HSRP is alos flapping from standby to acitve to standby. Troubleshoot why the two routers are not seeing each others hello. If there is a device in between check the vlan, STP, loop, etc. Can each router ping each other.
I do not think that HSRP will work the way you are setting it up. I have always seen it on the same subnet with two gateway routers on the same VLAN. I do not think it will work..However to answer your question on why the HSRP hellos are not seeing each other is probably because you do not have Multicast traffic enabled on the switch. HSRP uses multicast to send hellos back and forth. Make sure you have multicast allowed on your VLAN's..
I would tend to believe that the hello messages are getting thru sometimes since it is going active->speak-> standby. you can debug standby and see what is happening (usual risk with running debug). what does the other router display?
When HSRP goes from Active->Speak it will reset the interface in order to remove the virtual MAC address. This will toggle the port, and cause Spanning Tree to restart negotiation on that port, which places it in a non-forwarding state for 30 secs.
During this time neither HSRP router will see the HSRP Hello packets from the other HSRP router, and both will become Active.
The fix is to configure "spantree portfast" on the switch ports connected to the HSRP routers.
Another workaround is to configure "standby use-bia" on the HSRP interfaces so the ports are not toggled when the HSRP MAC address is removed.
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