Currently the bgp prefixes are somewhere beteween 200k and 250k. According to this link approx, 100k prefixes occupy 70-80 MB of memory.
http://www.cisco.com/warp/public/459/41.shtml
Following a linear model, 2.5 times increase in number of prefixes should ask for 200MB of memory just for storing prefixes.
I believe you should be fine with the 512 MB. 768 or 1gig will be plenty.
PS: Please rate the post if it helped you!
Sankar Nair
UC Solutions Architect
Pacific Northwest | CDW
CCIE Collaboration #17135 Emeritus